MAiMATE’s AI Analysis

Hi.I am Sameo, editor.

This article will explain how to read and analyze AI grades.
This should help you analyze your AI’s personality and what to look for when trading through the SCORE page!

Open SCORE page

I would like to look at and analyze the results, using as an example the performance of the “pound~le”, which reigned first overall as of January 27, 2020.

This “pound~le” is one of the AI agents that embodies the MAiMATE style of trading.

  • Greedily pursuing profits
  • Don’t hesitate to cut your losses.
  • Don’t get dented by a big loss, switch quickly and go make up for the loss.

These characteristics can also be found by reading the scores. Let’s start by looking at the score page. To open the score page, click on the card from the rankings page and so on.

Get to know the general personality of the AI in Spec

In the SPEC tab, you can easily see the trading characteristics that are the personality of the AI. These values are also related to class.

SPEC tab screen

How the class is calculated

Each item is rated on a five-point scale, with the top 5% getting 5 points, the top 25% getting 4 points, the top 50% getting 3 points, the bottom 25% getting 2 points, and the bottom 5% getting 1 point. The overall score of each item is divided into five levels: “S”, “A”, “B”, “C” and “D”. If you score 24 points or more overall, you will be certified as an S class. It is quite rare. Higher classes do not always produce higher profits. Class is rather important in looking at an agent’s personality.

The personality of an AI agent shows up in the form.

The AI agent’s trading style is evident in this hexagonal radar chart; the closer you get to the S class, the wider all the yellow areas are, the better the agent is. Below is the same Class A agent. As you can see, the same class has a different shape depending on the personality of the AI. For example, an agent whose small average profit is covered by the number of trades and the high win rate.

Many Class A’s have a high number of trades and aim for a high win rate.

Let’s take a look at the personality of the “poundole”.

You can see roughly that the “poundole” has characteristics such as high average profit and high win rate. While there are many Class B types with high average profit, Pound to Le has a high winning rate. This radar chart is updated daily as it is based on a relative evaluation of all agents based on the last year’s trading data.

Class B is more of a one-hit kill system.

Do personalities change?

The left is as of January 27, 2020 and the right is as of April 20, 2020. If you look at the changes in the pound~le, the “shape” hasn’t changed much. It’s probably because the AI that is doing well should be able to pursue its existing style without losing its existing style, and there is no need to force the average profit to be smaller or to increase the number of trades. It may change with continuous learning, but if there is a significant change in personality, check it out.

Know how often you are an AI that trades.

Based on the number of trades in a year, an approximate number of trades per week is assumed.
The number of trades here is the number of trades to be settled, which is the number of times you can settle your trade and determine your profit or loss.
With “Pound Sterling to Le”, the number of trades per year is 68, so the number of trades per month is 5.7 (= 68 ÷ 12 months), and if a month is 4 weeks, the number of trades per week is 1.4 (= 5.7 ÷ 4 weeks). In other words, the calculation shows that the profit and loss will be settled about 1 or 2 times per week.

The AI was born, but it doesn’t trade at all? If that’s the case, check out the average number of trades per week!

The estimated time it would take to recover the loss

Find out how big your maximum DD is, how many times your average profit is, and the estimated time period you will need to get it back. Assume the period of time you will have to endure before you can recover after a loss to avoid ending up with a loss and a withdrawal.

The maximum DD of Pounds Sterling is 556 pips and the average profit is 103 pips in the past year, so even if you trade well with no losses, you will need 556 pips ÷ 103 pips = about 5 times to recover the maximum DD loss.
Since the number of trades per week for GBP-LU is 1-2 times, we can confirm that it would take about 1 month to make 5 times profit.
Calculating such a time frame is important so that you are not in a hurry to recover your losses

This is especially important in determining when it’s time to quit during actual operations.

Deciphering the profit and loss chart

Next, I would like to explain the profit and loss chart on the PnL tab in order to analyze the agent in more depth.

Here’s a brief explanation of each. If you think you know how to read them, you can skip them. A particularly important point is the shape of the cumulative profit and loss chart. The smaller the indentation and the more right-handed the shape is, the better it is.

(2020年1月27日午前時点での成績)
  1. “PnL tab: Stands for Profit And Loss, which means profit and loss.
  2. Duration: You can select the duration of the transaction.
  3. Cumulative settlement gain or loss is the cumulative settlement gain or loss for a specified period.
  4. The “Cumulative Settlement Profit and Loss Chart” is an area chart of daily cumulative profit and loss. If your profit is increasing, it means that you have been making a profit for the period. A decrease in profit means that you have made a loss during the period.
  5. The “unrealized gains and losses” are represented by the blue and red bars at the bottom of the chart. Blue means positive valuation gains and red means negative valuation losses.
  6. The “maximum drawdown” is the orange cumulative settlement profit and loss chart, which is the most concave area. This is the location of the (6). The higher this value, the higher the risk of the trade. The logic for maximum drawdown “low risk” and cumulative settlement profit and loss “high return” is considered good.

The maximum drawdown is the largest cumulative profit or loss decline that has been realized. It’s a term often used as a risk, so keep that in mind!

analyze the results.

I would like to look at these results and analyze what kind of AI “Pondole” is.

Check your profit and loss type with the unrealized profit bar graph

Valuation Profit and Loss Graph

You can see that in many cases, the blue valuation bar graph of “pondole” increases continuously. This indicates that the “Pound Sterling to Le” is greedy to increase its profit. On the other hand, there are few cases where the red bar graph increases continuously, so we can see that AI agents are not hesitant to cut their losses and do not hesitate to do so when they feel differently.

Most of MAiMATE’s AI trades on a loss and gain basis. They do not trade short term, but they trade in a relaxed manner, called swing trading.

Postscript. Then “Pondole” gets even better.

If you’re trading on your own, you’ll especially understand how amazing the “Poundole” trade is. The move to make early decisions on losses and large profits is a thorough one. The red graph of valuation loss is not continuous, and the blue graph of valuation gain is continuous and increasing. On April 20, 2020 (ranked #5), three months after January 27, 2020, when this article was first written, the trend is still the same and profits are increasing further.

Results as of April 20, 2020

Why are valuation gains and losses important?

As I mentioned earlier in “Deciphering Profit and Loss Charts”, the better the cumulative profit and loss chart is the one with small dents and rising rightward shape. However, it is actually possible to make a chart without a concavity with a rising right shoulder. Therefore, in order to understand the risk you are actually taking, you need to understand the trend of valuation gains and losses. When using automatic trading services such as FX, as well as MAiMATE, you should always check whether the unrealized gain or loss is too large, not only the accumulated realized gain or loss, but also the unrealized gain or loss at the time, before you operate the service.

Beware of services that claim to have a 100% win rate, etc.

Check the AI’s response to a loss.

The maximum DD over the past year for “pondole” is 556 pips as of the morning of January 27, 2020. We now turn to this background.

You can also check the maximum drawdown figure from the SPEC tab.

The image below shows the vicinity of the maximum DD occurrence of “Poundole”. The point to check is whether the maximum DD is “maximum loss due to a sudden change in the market” or “maximum loss extension due to continued unrealized losses or consecutive losses”.

Enlarged screen at maximum drawdown

Losses due to sudden changes in the market

Losses due to sudden market changes” are very unfortunate, but they do happen in trading. Sudden outbreaks of war, statements by important people, and many other factors can cause sudden changes in the market, and in many cases, they are difficult to predict in advance. Therefore, when you experience a loss due to a sudden change in the market, it is important to change your mind and try to recover your losses without worrying about it.

Losses due to errors in judgment

On the other hand, “Continued losses due to failure to cut your losses, or increased maximum losses due to consecutive losses” is not a good result. When deciding which AI agent to use, it is important to check the response of the AI to this point (7), when you lose heavily.

Don’t succumb to sudden market losses.

Now let’s take a look at “pondole”. Since there is no continuous red bar graph representing valuation loss in the vicinity of #7, we can confirm that the maximum DD was “maximum loss due to a sudden change in the market”. And since the maximum DD occurred, the accumulation of the orange cumulative settlement profit and loss graph has resumed well, indicating that “Pounds to Le” did not get dented by the large losses, and immediately switched and went to recover the losses. A very encouraging result.

AI doesn’t always make a profit. There’s always going to be a loss, so the way you lose at that point will matter when you’re choosing an agent!

Get to know your trading habits.

Next, to get an idea of the AI agent’s trading quirks, we’ll check the status of the settlement in the History tab.

(Copied from the MAiMATE screen on January 27, 2020 morning)

The History tab allows you to look at the history of your transactions and identify your trading trends and habits.

Many Stop And Reverse order

You can’t make a profit if you don’t have a position! This is greedy trading, where a trader always holds a buy or sell position based on the decision to buy or sell. In many cases, the goal of trading is to cut losses quickly and extend profits as fast as possible. It is good to understand that AI, which is often a dodgy AI, trades boldly and boldly.

Stop And Reverse order is not only the closing of a buy position, but also the opening of a new sell position. In this case, it’s called a Doden sale.

Pause between settlement and the next new one.

This is a style of trading in which investors take a cautious approach and do not take a position when the market is uncertain. However, once you have taken a position, you can cut your losses quickly and aim to expand your profits as quickly as possible, just as in the case of Doden-type trading.

The position is biased towards selling or buying

There are some types of AI agents that only do either “New Sell” or “New Buy”. This should not be considered a problem as long as the agent is profitable, and should be recognized as an AI agent’s personality.

It sounds pretty quirky in forex trading to always enter only from buying. However, I think it is relatively common for actual discretionary traders to do this.

There are more “types of trends” in addition to this one. Try analyzing your trading history to find them. This may be a point of reference for training and actual trading operations.

in the last

These are the ways to view and analyze AI results.

Choosing an AI to operate when it goes into actual trading in the fall of 2020 is an important part of MAiMATE operations. Why not start looking for an AI you’re interested in now and cultivate your eye?